Analysis of Today’s Value Update (5/21/2024)

Value Update 5/21/2024, an Analysis by Jesse

It seems that the community is starting to take a turn in the right direction, specifically when it comes to trading these older 2020 knives. What we’ve seen for a very long time is a few very highly demanded items being the sole focus of the trading community. Well, now we have an update to back the fact that investing in items that hold value over time due to rarity is a far better strategy than investing in one big, highly demanded item for the short term.

My reasoning for this lies in the trend graphs of these items which I will attach below. You will be able to see the difference between and item that relies purely on demand for its value, and an item that relies on its scarcity for its value.

Axe of the Reaper
You can see in the trend for Axe of the Reaper it hit a very high value, and then has been crabbing downwards ever since it hit its peak. This value increase was primarily driven by demand, and as demand has decreased/trading trends have changed, this item has consistently lost values.

Medalist Mangler
This is yet another item whose value was driven completely by demand. Although at first the scarcity may have been a factor, primarily it was the WANT and NEED for it that drove the value so high. It was something new and exciting that you could earn in the game, which drove its demand to a peak of 30,000,000 value.

As we can clearly see, after duping occurred and the demand went down, so did its value. I think this item might be the most telling of all of them, showing how the loss of demand can immediately cause the value of an item to drop (and drop hard).

Over the Rainbow 2020
OTR20 is an incredibly rare item in the current state of the game (we just raised the rarity to 9.5 to account for that). Because of this, its value remains largely untouched most of the time. There was a peak in March of 2023, and a drop after that. However, this item’s value remains so constant that it sometimes goes months, or even sometimes half a year without updates. Due to this fact, it makes it a generally safe item to invest in. The recent raise might also indicate a shift from players caring so much about demand to caring more about scarcity and origin of an item.

Wings of Cupid 2020
Personally, I see WOC20 as being the most apparently proof that a large part of the community does in fact care about scarcity of an item. WOC20 was, at one point, the second rarest knife in the game. Even by today’s standards it would have been rare. However, it is also the item that was most affected by duping. This mass influx of copies being pushed into the economy caused what seems to be a major, irreversible drop in its value.

Special Snowflake & Frostbite
I think these knives give the biggest argument FOR investing in older items. These are items that haven’t reached their peak yet. They have become increasingly hard to find over the years (they were released in 2020), and because of that people are starting to realize that they should be worth a hell of a lot more than they are.

Since 2022 these items have only gone up, albeit slow, but consistently. I think in the near future we will see a lot more trades around these items, and I really hope to see their values continue to increase.


Conclusion
This new value update just goes to show that relying on demand may be good for a short-term flip, but will never work out for long term investments. Long term investments are what will consistently drive your inventory value up, and is why so many people become successful traders with use of the value list as a guide.

Although long term investments will not give you the instant gratification of a flip, it will put you in a position to become a more valuable trader long-term. People live and die by demand, but people thrive when they take scarcity and value into account as well.

Anyways, this is just my quick analysis of this update. I would love to hear your thoughts below on what I have covered here. I find numbers and trends to be really important, so I wanted to present my thoughts on what I am currently seeing happen in the STK trade scene.

7 Likes

Just delete all duped woc 20.And kill every last axe r user😈

5 Likes

Idk why people would hoard high demand items, while they are highly demanded, all that leaves you is a surplus of items that can die any time due to the fluctuating demand that item may have, essentially causing your inventory to be stagnant as you can’t trade off your items for what you originally traded for it, I always invested into items through downgrades when trading and rarely go for demand trades

Also whoever posted the update is cool

1 Like

Make Devs Delete Dupes :speaking_head:

8 Likes

Invest in the underrated undervalued items. Way more likely to help you out.

5 Likes

Looks lyk it’s alwys good to have varities n a min of 6 of each items… Investing in rare n collecting the hyped items is a good strategy…this value update seemed to be more good… Things lyk otr20, c papi deserved a raise… Ghost did wonders too :grin:

2 Likes

Jesse my bro sent an idea to remove every dupe in the game to Patrick should I copy and paste same to you?

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My bro already sent it to Patrick
And that idea was that people who had even traded their real items for dupes shouldn’t be upset because they can’t label and differentiate dupes from non dupes

2 Likes

Cant argue with the statistics. I love seeing all the 2020 knives raise and variety coming back to the trading community. I think the update to woc might help it in the long run.

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I’d be curious to see which of my items are dupes :exploding_head:
Pretty sure my dds is

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Hi Jesse, I think limited knives have to go up, ax R is overrated, my humble opinion

2 Likes

that deserved so much to let those green rarities a chance to give so much spotlight after that🥹

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Yes that’s why ima keep a couple arachs cuz I Believe in what Jesse says with hoarding the actually valuable items #bringbackarach

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Some people said we should delete the dupe ,but i think many people will cry if that happens because if the developers delete the dupe then it is possible my knife is also a dupe, then i will no longer carry any item xd

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image

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Any Medalist Owner that is “investing with meda”

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Thinking about the rarity and scarcity of an item as well as its future demand is the key to actually getting rich quick. Investing in items that are scarce and low valued right now is a good move to make but traders don’t take that into account and that is why they spend their time following a trend made by a Trend Setter which lasts for 2 weeks at best. The Trend Follower will never get rich as they can’t be independent. Be the person to look at these scarce items and take advantage of their low prices and stack them for future profit as short term profit means nothing.

5 Likes

Is that why you did this trade

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I wish we could delete dupes, but I feel this would cause a lot of anger in the community because people who traded for them paid there value to obtain them. Thousands of traders would lose a large percent of there inventory because it is much more common to find a dupe then a non-duped item. And I also now that the devs are doing all they can to put a stop to duping. All though this is a problem, I think all we can do is try our best to stop duping, I think that alr duped items are now permanently in the game

2 Likes

that’s fake

2 Likes